以SHTF = 「💩 hits the fan」 形容身陷戰爭的慘烈狀況也真繪形繪聲… 據戰亂求生電腦遊戲This War of Mine的FANDOM記載,這遊戲就是基於書中所述的戰爭(1992-96)及此作者部分經歷設計的。




以下用 📖 標示章節名稱、斜體為引文。

📖 The Five Things that will Shock you the Most about the SHTF 軍人的敵人是敵方,你的敵人是周圍所有搶奪資源求存的人。

The “enemy” will look, sound, and speak like you.

They may even have been your long-time friends who are now on the ‘opposite’ side. Fighting here was divided by all sorts of reasons: race, religion, affiliation, heritage, politics and often a big mix of all these things. “Sides” were always changing as well.

A soldier has a job to do, and all his other needs are taken care of… If you served in Army, you had clear orders, topics, outside of that you did not need to think about too many things.


Fighting for survival is an all-day, everyday task. You are constantly hunting, scavenging, gathering, finding information, looking and checking things…

一般巿民基本上要馬不停蹄地掙扎求存——狩獵、拾荒、採集、尋找資訊、檢查物品——連睡覺的時間也沒有…🥲(玩This War of Mine可以約略感受一下是怎樣的慘狀)

📖 The Return of Natural Selection

Flexible thinkers survive because they have many options to do things and react if they have to.

但作者在這章舉的例子,我覺得已經不是 flexible 與否了…




📖 The First Trades after the Collapse


戰亂時會有來自各國的救援物資送來,出現很多新奇的物品,例如作者提到的「powdered egg」我也是第一次聽。


  • 若你不知道有誰在、對方有多少武裝、或不知會有什麼東西,就不要去那地方。
  • 不要把你全副身家拿去交易。
  • 要想想有意外狀況時該怎辦(”Have a plan of what to do in case of surprises” 意外是要怎麼想啊…)
  • 太易接受交易條件會讓對方覺得你弱勢,這可能會引發其他麻煩。


似乎這書未有出版的中譯版? 好,繼續 🔥

📖 Where to Start for Prepper Newbies Bug Out = leave an unsafe situation quickly 但所有Bug Out plan/resources在非常情況下很大機會無法執行/存取,所以作者強調要掌握可信的知識和懂得隨機應變:Simply, focus on building credible knowledge and skills, and develop and adaptive mindset.


  • Fire 火
  • Water 食水
  • Shelter 容身之處
  • Food 食物
  • Signaling/Communication 通訊
  • Medical/Hygiene 衛生
  • Personal Safety 人身安全

作者這裡漏寫了他好幾章也有提到的 - 修理技術 ——修理電器/機械等有助求生的物品。

📖 Dealing with Difference

  • We are living in a world where there is a big mix of nationalities, customs, religions, social rituals, etc.
  • DO NOT attract attention by being different.

  • It makes perfect sense to know the customs of people around you, political opinion, social rituals, etc. It is good to know language or at least ascents. 概括來說就是要有文化知識和洞察力,避免開罪別人或引起注意。能夠辯識語言/口音的話,也就更大機會得知對方的背景或前設。

📖 New Generations 對科技極大的依賴以及大量人口在城巿密集居住,讓人們更難在戰爭中存活下來,因為一旦爆發戰爭,資源(水、食物、電…)運輸就會被切斷,不可能養活如此龐大的都巿人口,很快就會演變成喪屍片互相殘殺的局面…

…either to die in huge numbers, or to look for resources in a way that looks the easiest to them, and that is actually by taking the resources from another.

And that is actually the real zonbie apocalypse.

📖 An Average Day

在容身之所外的任何活動只能在晚上進行(先前的章節提到,白天會有殺人如麻的狙擊手snipers,晚上行動才較易掩人耳目),例如交易、拾荒採集,獲取人道救援的補給MREs(Meal, Ready-to-Eat)等。





Nothing Fancy. Funny actually.

(這章提到的基本上This War of Mine遊戲中也有包括,不過遊戲忽略了很重要的食水衛生問題——要是把食水衛生一環加進去,RPC應該很快死掉,沒人會想玩這電腦遊戲🥲 )

📖 Gun Control? No, thanks.

(身在美國並試過有認識的人受嚴重槍傷的我,對這章心情複雜… 當然作者說的話是很有道理的。以下除了意譯還是節錄一下原文。)


Weapons save lives and take lives, but it depends on the person who uses it.

After this event–and this sounds stupid–I fell in love with weapons. In the months that followed weapons were some of the most important tools for survival. It became very natural to handle a weapon and to have it all the time with me.


所以… 槍械管制應該取決於一個人到底有多大機率暴露於要使用槍的危險中(在美國,住在鄉郊地方的人的確需要槍,因為會有野生動物襲擊),以及如何避免壞人/精神有問題、無法自控的人使用槍械傷害他人… 的確有些人終其一生都不會有機會陷入戰亂,作者要不是經歷戰亂也不會習慣帶槍在身。

Death is ugly. Killing is bad, but it is a very natural thing for people when they fight for survival and resources. I think the problem of people who are against weapons is that they do not want to accept the facts of what can happen to them.

And then they are the ones who run away and have only a belt to fight with when they face bad people.

📖 The Cost of Violence

這章談的不是知識,而是那些熬過戰爭活過來的人。作者說他這不是自誇,生還者絕對是那個時期的best of the best,因為稍笨的人早就死光了。

Without false modesty, those of us who made it are the best of the best from that time, real survivors. We survived everything because stupidity got punished very hard back then, usually with death.



There is a name for all this I wrote here. They label it with the words, PTSD. But the real point is that once violence enters your life, once it becomes part of you, you belong to that violence. For the rest of your life.


作者在本章最後提出了兩點(Two main lessons here.):

Every time you use violence the dark passenger in you grows and it will not leave. It is part of you.*


The second lesson here is that you should think about a time after the collapse. I have friends in the US army and I know some of the veteran services are bad, but at least they are there.

I have read in a history book that soldiers in earlier wars had less PTSD because they traveled together for a longer time from the area of conflict. If you lead a group of survivors during SHTF think about giving them rest. Think about sort of a debriefing time.




書看了 20%,讓我暫時休息一下,視乎閱讀進度決定在這噗還是開新噗再續。若上面有敍述得不清楚的地方請告知🙏也歡迎留言討論






(1) From 📖 “The True Nature of Survival”


(2) From 📖 “The Human side of Authority”



(3) From 📖 “Deciding what to do”



📖 Myth Busting: Knife Attacks(關於持刀攻擊的迷思)



  • 利刀是很寶貴的資源。若刀只用在攻擊上,是很大的浪費。比起刀,斧頭是更實用的武器。
  • 若刀真的是你唯一可以用的武器,可能把它做成長矛會更好,至少攻擊時可與對方保持一段距離。用刀意味著你要「埋身肉搏」(貼身攻擊),這跟用槍的單向攻擊不一樣,對方也能用你手上的刀捅你。
  • 用刀捅人風險不低。首先,這會發生極大聲響,而且你要用力捅進去,決不如電影中的情節能靜悄悄捅死人。然後,那一捅有否擊中對方要害(例如頸動脈)?你是捅還是割?你的刀有多鋒利?用刀捅人變數一大籮。
  • 沒接受過訓練的人,很難一下子學會如何用刀攻擊。
  • 即使你成功捅中對方要害,對方也不會即時死亡,在那之前他還有機會把你置諸死地。🔞–只是刺傷對方然後拔刀,跟刺進腹部之後再挖、鑿、切(dig, gouge and cut),是全然不同的事–🤦 簡而言之,刀不是攻擊用最有效的武器,但若果你只有刀,那祝你好運…

📖 The Orlando Nightclub Attack: Some Thoughts




  • 恐怖分子襲擊有大量人持搶的場合機會很低。
  • 亳無裝備地處於亳無裝備的人海中是危險的事(就「眾地莫企」吧)。一旦發生事故,會一片恐慌+混亂。


  • 分清在場的「掩護」(cover)和「隱藏」(concealment)。掩護是指能擋子彈的東西,例如厚厚的磚牆,在它後面,沒有子彈可以殺死你;「隱藏」則是讓敵人看不見你的東西,例如茂密的灌木叢,你站在後面的話對方看不到你(但無法擋子彈)。
  • 認清場地的設置,包括入口、出口、通道等,並辨別出真正可以「掩護」你的東西。
  • 謹記:AK47(或任何其他類似特徵步槍)的子彈可以穿過許多物體,例如門、牆壁、架子、櫥櫃、桌子,殺死您甚至同時殺死另一個人。即使是手槍的子彈也能射穿很多東西並殺死你。

📖 When More Chaos Helps for Survival


在戰亂初期,表親在轉移陣地時被武裝分子抓住,問他屬於什麼組織,嚇得他說不出話。但就在這時,武裝分子發現他帶著一個寫著他名字和「Kreator」的ID tag,「Kreator」是他心儀德國metal band的名字。



寫到這裡我要停一下,心理上也有點疲累,幾天後才繼續寫。 若上面有敍述得不清楚的地方請告知🙏也歡迎留言討論


隔了三個月,終於重拾 #南斯拉夫內戰餘生錄 (Selco Begovic《SHTF Survival Stories: Memories from the Balkan War》),把有關作者親身經歷的第一部分看完了。第二部分是作者與其他戰爭倖存者的訪談,在此不贅。






以書中「四種倖存者(The 4 Types of Real Survivialists)」這章為例,作者提到他所認識的、在這場戰亂中倖存下來的有四種人:「壞蛋(The Bad Man)」、「變色龍(The Chameleon)」、「奴隸和侍從(Slaves and Servants)」以及「好的領導者(The Good Boss)」,而讀了他分享有關這四種人的故事,我覺得他們的成功故事還是運氣佔多(例如說謊沒被拆穿,賣身沒有被殺害),故難以複製。所以只能說,「作者所遇過的倖存者中有這四種人」,而不是「這四種人就能成為戰亂中的倖存者」。



📖 Stay Tuned/資訊有其時限

Use of that timely linformation could save your life, the big difference between you, a prepper, and a non-repper is that you should have that information before them and react to it.

And you are mostly probably not going to get that information by using regular media, at least not in the to have an advantage over the other folks, especially the bad kind of folks.




📖 關於食物(Some Thoughts on Food…)


SHTF is stress for your body (and mind), huge stress. Your body will need food that is balanced and good for you more than ever.


  1. 量要足夠支持你和家人/隊員至少一段時間。

  2. 食物最好是包裝成容易攜帶/搬運/貯藏在不同地方的,還有要避免遇上例外狀況時(例如水浸)一下子把整個庫存的食物污染。所以小包裝、罐頭、真空密封、MRE(Meal, Ready-to-eat)、密封桶、小包裝糖等是最好的。

…packaged in a way that gives you options to move it quickly and hide it in different places. Small packaging, cans, vacuum sealed, MREs, sealed buckets, small packages of sugar, and similar packaging is preferable. You also want packaging that gives you less chances of spoiling whole storage if something goes wrong (water, infestation, etc.).

  1. 把食物準備成可吃的狀態所需的時間和資源愈少愈好(煮飯要用水和燃料 v.s. MRE打開就能吃)。

另外就是,如果可以的話,為自己準備一些comfort food,這是對你自己精神(mental aspect)有幫助的食物(每個人的comfort food都不同)。

作者分享了他在戰亂剛開始時在朋友家裡吃飯吃到虫子的事,當時他還在適應SHTF的狀況才大呼小叫,後來他也就適應了「可吃的東西就吃」——過期食物(expired food)、被污染了的食物例如丟進了虫子的食物(infested food)、未煮熟的食物(raw food)、奇怪的食物(weird food)…

作者在後來的章節也提到會有很狼狽的情況,例如一邊腹瀉時還要一邊防守陣地… 即使在城巿裡吃錯東西危害到生命也不是稀有的事,更何況戰亂中衛生環境惡劣是必然的事,在沒有選擇的情況下食物即使受污染還是可能要照吃,但吃後身體有什麼反應或是會否感染脫水而死就看體質和運氣…

📖 A way out of Town/如何出城

(這部分來自書中「A way out of Town」前半章的內容)



I took that trip once, in January. I think it was something like -15 C, with freezing wind and blizzards. It was like swimming through snow, not to mention that nobody had clue where exactly mines and other traps were.


To be honest, though it sounds ridiculous, I finished that trip. I’m not sure is it because that mix. I just know that most of the time on that trip I was half drunk and walked like a zombie.

最後一種途徑,作者自己沒試過,只是道聽途說,就是穿過__引水道__逃出城巿。(看到這,心裡一陣揪痛… 據聞2020年香港的「理大圍城」事件中,其中一些在場的人就是透過污水渠逃出生天)

Again, rumors raged, there was a story that some folks went through the sewage systems and managed to get out.

📖 獨行俠(lone wolf)能夠生存嗎?

因為讀這書之前已經玩過基於這書設計的戰亂求生遊戲This War of Mine,在遊戲中體會過自己一個求生是多麼恐怖的事,基本上會連睡覺的時間也沒有,而且出外一晚拾荒,容身之所得來不易的資源就會被掠奪。


  • 生存意義(Mental strength - having a cause):SHTF的情況本身就會嚴重損害精神狀態了,在舉目無親又沒有同伴的情況下就更加危險了。
  • 行動力(Mobility):如果有隊友的話,可以分工合作;獨行俠所有事情都要一手包辦,也就是無時無刻在隨時必須動身的狀態,也得一人做好所有要務:搜集資訊、收集資源、守衛容身之所…也因此做決定時,考慮的條件會跟成群結隊求生的人很不一樣。
  • 技能(Skills):至少必須精通一種技能(e.g. 維修、種植、醫療/急救、草藥知識 etc)作為與人交涉的籌碼(precious skill as a bartering value),即使是獨自行動,到了某個階段其實也不得不和別人組成結盟。

He needs to be an expert in at least one relevant field. As a lone wolf, you’ll be forced (especially in a prolonged SHTF) to form some kind of alliances to get stuff, or simply you’ll be forced to join (for shorter or longer periods) some group.

  • 和他人的互動(Ohter people and you):獨自與其他人交涉肯定比組隊危險得多,這不用多說。在城巿SHTF裡,充滿難民和資源短缺的情況下,獨行意味著要避開他人,以免淪為攻擊/掠奪對象。

The rules of survivial are mostly the same as being in a group, but much harder or sharper, with much fewer margins for error.


寫到這裡我有點累了… 要暫停一下。因為很快就要遠遊,我應該會在這兩天寫好這噗。 還未寫完的要點還有:

  • 及時反應的重要性
  • 保持健康的精神狀態
  • 四種倖存者
  • 總結/全書感想






在此想分享一點點另一本書的內容:Evy Poumpouras著的《Becoming Bulletproof: Protect Yourself, Read People, Influence Situations, and Live Fearlessly》第一章提到,研究顯示,遇到危險時,會被觸發的反應有三種(F3 Response):Fight(戰鬥), Flight(逃跑), or Freeze(僵住)。

The idea here isn’t to respond to every situation in one way, but to understand how you naturally respond. Before we try to learn how to manage our fear response, we must first identify our patterns.

You can give yourself more choices based on your ability to plan and strategize rather than responding unconsciously to a threat.


作者Evy Poumpouras提到的其中一個例子是,許多交通失事意外中,鞏事司機即時反應都是鬆開軚盤掩著臉——明明控制軚盤和看清現狀是發生緊密事故時最重要的事!



Act instead of freeze.


Poeple see what they want to see and especially when things get tough, they try to look for good things in a bad situation.

Unfortunately, even if there are no good things some still convince themselves there are.



作者在【Under Pressure】提到他碰上一個在戰爭中遇過極端狀況以致精神失常(幻聽)的人。他寫道:

Pressure on the human body and particularly human mind in a real SHTF is usually huge and you can expect weird things sometimes. The brain will play tricks on you, and sometimes you can just lose it.

Prepare not to lose it.

坦白說,我不知道「losing mind」是不是能夠選擇的。我覺得,作者沒有瘋掉,是他的幸運。

我覺得作者在另一章【Under the bridge…】的分享更有建設性。在他們進入SHTF狀態約半年時,他眼巴巴目睹一位好友被炸死,但當時他們的精神狀況都很差,倖存者們(包括作者)竟拿被炸死的好友開玩笑。

Somehow, I forgot that in only 6 months’ time I had turned myself to survival mode only, which was not bad, but at the same time, I had lost part of me.

After we ended our deal with the Spanish guys, we went home, and I felt like I was gonna cry. Because of the stupid death of my friend. Because I wanted to listen to music, not to shoot. Because I guess music reminded me of normal times and the fact that I have to be sorry because the death of my friend, not to make fun of it.


The point is that no matter how bad the situation is, you just need to have some connection with “normal” otherwise you’ll simply turn yourself into an animal. It can be a book, it can be a guitar and music, or simply chatting with friends–no matter how hard the shit hits the fan. Do not forget that you are human and you need to have and express emotions. Or simply, you may burn out.




1. 壞蛋(The Bad Man)


2. 變色龍(The Chameleon)

The Chameleon is a smart type of real survivalist. When SHTF, the word deception has a whole other meaning and becomes powerful.


Never form your opinion about what kind of man is dangerous based on popular images.



He said, even if that thing worked, he was not sure if he would be able to shoot at them. But he realized one thing. It is not important how things really are – it is important what things look like.


“How were you able to know all the information about so much stuff?” Because it sounded just too complicated for me.

He said, “What I did not know I just made up in my head”.

Actually, he was playing with prices, with demand, and the needs of the people. He dictated the prices.


Through his network of people, he put the word out that “powerful people were protecting him.” Another illusion but together with fact that people did not want to have problems with a man who had always good information, he survived.


If some really strong group caused danger to him, he just left the house and waited for them to leave.

No problem, he did not have anything valuable in his house. Trading goods he kept with his “associates” and his main value was information.

His main value actually was his brain.

Keep that in mind. Before you give up because you have nothing, use your brain and try to play the system with deception. Chaotic urban survival situations offer lots of opportunity for that.

3. 奴隸和侍從(Slaves and Servants)


It was her “trade”. While other men risked their lives, she overcome her dignity and did that.


4. 好的領導者(The Good Boss)